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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.